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Due to some physical inconvenience the upcoming weeks, I will not be able to write a full blog post at this time. Typing with one finger is not productive.
A video post could be an alternative, however for me, the disadvantage of a video message is that it requires the audience to follow all the information in a fixed speed – no fast or selective reading possible – hard to archive and store in context of other information. Putting pieces of information in a relevant context is a PLM-mission.
So this time my post from December 2008, where I predicted the future for 2050. I think the predictions were not too bad – you will recognize some trends and challenges still ahead. Some newer comments in italic green. I am curious to learn what you think after reading this post. Enjoy, and I am looking forward to your feedback
PLM in 2050
As the year ends (December 2008), I decided to take my crystal ball to see what would happen with PLM in the future.
It felt like a virtual experience and this is what I saw:
- Data is not replicated any more – every piece of information that exists will have a Unique Universal ID; some people might call it the UUID. In 2020 this initiative became mature, thanks to the merger of some big PLM and ERP vendors, who brought this initiative to reality. This initiative reduced the exchange costs in supply chains dramatically and lead to bankruptcy for many companies providing translators and exchange software. (still the dream of a digital enterprise)
- Companies store their data in ‘the cloud’ based on the previous concept. Only some old-fashioned companies still have their own data storage and exchange issues, as they are afraid someone will touch their data. Analysts compare this behavior with the situation in the year 1950, when people kept their money under a mattress, not trusting banks (and they were not always wrong) (we are getting there – sill some years to go)
- After 3D, an entire virtual world, based on holography, became the next step for product development and understanding of products. Thanks to the revolutionary quantum-3D technology, this concept could be even applied to life sciences. Before ordering a product, customers could first experience and describe their needs in a virtual environment (to be replaced by virtual twin / VR / AR)
- Finally the cumbersome keyboard and mouse were replaced by voice and eye-recognition.
Initially voice recognition (Siri, Alexia please come to the PLM domain)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Y_Jp6PxsSQand eye tracking (some time to go still)were cumbersome. Information was captured by talking to the system and capturing eye-movement when analyzing holograms. This made the life of engineers so much easier, as while analyzing and talking, their knowledge was stored and tagged for reuse. No need for designers to send old-fashioned emails or type their design decisions for future reuse (now moving towards AI)
- Due to the hologram technology, the world became greener. People did not need to travel around the world, and the standard became virtual meetings with global teams(airlines discontinued business class). Even holidays could be experienced in the virtual world thanks to a Dutch initiative based on the experience with coffee. (not sure why I selected this movie. Sorry ….)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUqWaOi8lYQThe whole IT infrastructure was powered by efficient solar energy, reducing the amount of carbon dioxide dramatically - Then with a shock, I noticed PLM did not longer exist. Companies were focusing on their core business processes. Systems/terms like PLM, ERP, and CRM did not longer exist. Some older people still remembered the battle between these systems to own the data and the political discomfort this gave inside companies (so true …)
- As people were working so efficient, there was no need to work all week. There were community time slots, when everyone was active, but 50 percent of the time, people had the time to recreate (to re-create or recreate was the question). Some older French and German designers remembered the days when they had only 10 weeks holiday per year, unimaginable nowadays. (the dream remains)
As we still have more than 40 years to reach this future, I wish you all a successful and excellent 2009.
I am looking forward to be part of the green future next year.
Currently, I am preparing my sessions for the upcoming Product Innovation conference in Düsseldorf. See: www.picongress.com. My first session will be about PLM upgrades and how to deal with them for the future. It is a challenging topic as some PLM vendors claim using their product, there will be no upgrade problems and cloud-based solutions also provide seamless upgrades in the future.
Don’t cheer to early when you see this kind of messages. I had the chance to look back the past twenty years what happened with PLM and tried to look forward to the upcoming ten years what might happen.
In addition, this lead to some interesting thoughts that I will share in detail during the conference. I will come back to this topic in this blog after the conference. Here some unstructured thoughts that passed my mind recently when preparing this session.
Not every upgrade is the same!
First there was an interesting blog post from Ed Lopategui from E(E) with the title There is No Upgrade, where he addresses the difference between consumer software and enterprise software. Where consumer software will be used by millions and tested through long Alfa and beta cycles, PLM software often comes to the market in what you could consider a beta stage with limited testing.
Most PLM vendors invest a lot of their revenue in providing new functionality and technology based on their high-end customer demands. They do not have the time and budget to invest in the details of the solution; for this reason PLM solutions will remain a kind of framework.
In addition, when a solution is not 100 % complete there will be an adaptation from the customer, making upgrades later, not 100 percent guaranteed or compatible. More details on PLM Upgrades after the conference, let’s look into the near future.
The Future of PLM resides in Brussels!
Some weeks ago I was positively amused by some messages coming from Roger Tempest (PLM Interest Group) related to the future of PLM. Roger claims the PLM industry is effectively rudderless. For that Roger announces the Launch Meeting for the PLM International Research Foundation,
“simple because such a platform does not yet exist.”
I checked if perhaps an ERP International Research Foundation existed, but I only found references to SAP, so what makes the PLM International Research Foundation unique ?
According to Roger, the reason behind this initiative is the lack of clear targets for PLM. I quote:
The lack of detailed thought means that many future possibilities for PLM are just not being considered; and the lack of collective thought means that even the current initiatives to improve PLM remain fragmented and ineffective
As I mentioned in the previous paragraph, PLM vendors are in a kind of rat race to keep up with market demands, rapidly changing business, meanwhile building on their core technology. Not an easy game, as they cannot start from scratch, but for sure, and here I agree, they do not optimize their portfolio.
Who can and will take part in such a research forum?
PLM vendors will lean back, as their mission is to be competitive in business, not necessarily constrained by PLM guidelines.
This is the same for companies implementing PLM systems. They are looking for solutions in the market that improve their businesses. This might be a PLM system, but perhaps other components bring even a higher value. Is ALM or SLM part of PLM, for example? This is a challenge as who defined what PLM is and where are the boundaries ?
This leaves the activity to the academics for sure they will have the most advanced and futuristic vision of what is possible conceptually. From my observations, the main challenges currently with PLM are that even the vendors are ten years ahead in their capabilities compared to what most companies are asking for. For the academic approach, I still have to think about Monty Python’s sketch related to soccer. See below
Sorry for the generalization, I believe we should not focus on what is PLM and how PLM should be defined. What we now call PLM is entirely different from what we called PLM 10 years ago, see my last year´s post PLM is changing. I think the future should focus how we are going to deal with business platforms, which contain PLM facets.
The PLM future
Interesting enough we are on the brink of a new business paradigm due to globalization and digitization as you might have read from my recent posts. There are analysts, consultancy firms and research foundations all describing this challenging future.
Have a look at this post from Verdi Ogewell’s article at Engineering.com: Product Innovation Platform: Plug’n’play next generation PLM. The post is a summary of the platform discussion during the PDT 2014 conference, which I consider as one of the best conferences if you want to go into the details. See also my post: The weekend after PDT 2014.
The future is about innovation and/or business platforms where data is available based on a federated approach, not necessary based on a single, monolithic PLM platform.
Focusing on standardization and openness of such a platform is for me the central mission we have.
Remember: Openness is a right, not a privilege.
Let PLM vendors and other application providers develop their optimized services for individual business scenarios that will remove the borders of system thinking. Academic support will be needed to solve interoperability and openness required for initiatives like Industry 4.0 and IDC´s third platform.
I am looking forward to interesting discussions at the upcoming
PI conference but also with peers in my network.
The future is challenging and will it still be named PLM?
Your thoughts?
As the year ends, I decided to take my crystal ball to see what would happen with PLM in the future. It felt like a virtual experience and this is what I saw:
- Data is not replicated any more – every piece of information that exists will have a Universal Unique ID, some people might call it the UUID. In 2020 this initiative became mature, thanks to the merger of some big PLM and ERP vendors, who brought this initiative to reality. This initiative reduced the exchange costs in supply chains dramatically and lead to bankcrupcy for many companies providing translators and exchange software.
- Companies store their data in ‘the cloud’ based on the previous concept. Only some old-fashioned companies still have their own data storage and exchange issues, as they are afraid someone will touch their data. Analysts compare this behavior with the situation in the year 1950, when people kept their money under a mattress, not trusting banks (and they were not always wrong)
- After 3D, a complete virtual world, based on holography, became the next step for product development and understanding of products. Thanks to the revolutionary quantum-3D technology, this concept could be even applied to life sciences. Before ordering a product, customers could first experience and describe their needs in a virtual environment
- Finally the cumbersome keyboard and mouse were replaced by voice and eye-recognition.Initially voice recognition and eye tracking were cumbersome. Information was captured by talking to the system and capturing eye-movement when analyzing holograms. This made the life of engineers so much easier, as while analyzing and talking, their knowledge was stored and tagged for reuse. No need for designers to send old-fashioned emails or type their design decisions for future reuse
- Due to the hologram technology the world became greener. People did not need to travel around the world and the standard became virtual meetings with global teams(airlines discontinued business class) . Even holidays could be experienced in the virtual world thanks to a Dutch initiative based on the experience with coffee. The whole IT infrastructure was powered by efficient solar energy, reducing the amount of carbon dioxide drastically
- Then with a shock, I noticed PLM did not longer exist. Companies were focusing on their core business processes. Systems/terms like PLM, ERP and CRM did not longer exist. Some older people still remembered the battle between those systems to own the data and the political discomfort this gave inside companies
- As people were working so efficient, there was no need to work all week. There were community time slots, when everyone was active, but 50 per cent of the time, people had the time to recreate (to re-create or recreate was the question). Some older French and German designers remembered the days when they had only 10 weeks holiday per year, unimaginable nowadays.
As we still have more than 40 years to reach this future, I wish you all a successful and excellent 2009.
I am looking forward to be part of the green future next year.
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